A professor from the University of California, Los Angeles thinks he has a pretty good idea. UCLA geography Professor Thomas Gillespie uses a technique that tracks endangered species to narrow down the spot where the terrorist is most likely hiding.  Here’s the abstract from the MIT International Review PDF:

One of the most important political questions of our time is: Where is Osama bin Laden? We use biogeographic theories associated with the distribution of life and extinction (distance-decay theory, island biogeography theory, and life history characteristics) and remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Defense Meteorological Satellite, QuickBird) over three spatial scales (global, regional, local) to identify where bin Laden is most probably currently located. We believe that our work involves the first scientific approach to establishing his current location. The methods are repeatable and can be updated with new information obtained from the US intelligence community.

This region of Afghanistan is south of Tora Bora, the mountain fortress where bin Laden’s well-trained fighters made a stand against American forces in 2001.  On December 16, 2001, despite a U.S. and Afghan assualt, Osama bin Laden escaped from the hideout across the border into Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

Gillespie’s location is close to the border with Kurram Agency, which is part of the FATA, and not far from a number of U.S. missile strikes on suspected terrorists in North Waziristan.  (A good, interactive map the the region is here.)

For anyone interested in trying to collect the reward for bin Laden, Gillespie goes as far as identifying three buildings in Parachinar where bin Laden and his support structure could be hiding.  Good luck!

- Scott